all right. quick and dirty to the "town square" we go. friday, a little mailbag for you, we'll hand it off to chris to try to find out why the ratings agencies still work for the banks. an email from jim maxwell. how do you get away with so much truth about the banks. wall street and the government?

you're lucky to be walking around. >> yeah, i don't know. i -- i have a food taster, somebody else, i got a whole team of people. so, if i die of a gas leak make sure somebody subpoenas the banks. and there is this tweet from atjenny 0101. if somehow wall street was fixed perfectly, would dylan ratigan become mute? no, but i might take a long weekend before i came back for the immigration debate. the energy debate. the war in afghanistan. i'll keep going, but we're out of time. that does do it for us this week. i thank you so much for spending some of your time with us. up next is "hardball." chris matthews as i mentioned, with a string of politicians. all of whom debating this wall street reform package. bear in mind, it does not fix too big to fail. and the ratings agencies still work for the banks. and yet, the democrats seem to be in a rush to get it to the floor without a debate.

why is that? i suspect, my friend chris will play a little "hardball." forgive me. starting in about three seconds here. have a good weekend. greed is not good. let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm chris matthews here in washington. leading off tonight, wall street showdown. wall street reformers a fight president obama and the democrats are happy to have. and figure to win. senate democrats are putting the squeeze on republicans, bringing wall street reform to the floor on monday. and betting that the gop won't want to be seen as wall street's protector. this isn't like health care reform, where the democrats had to convince people they were on the public side. in fact, i think president obama is right where he needs to be on this one. one fight the president may be smart to avoid is immigration.

the arizona governor has just signed a new bill that would require state law enforcement officials to ask anyone suspected of being an illegal, in the country illegally for identification. the law has sparked outrage among latino groups and it may have forced the president's hand in tackling an issue that could prove very divisive in the mid-term elections this november. and get a load of the latest from dick cheney. he says that his gross remark to senator patrick leahy back in his vice presidency days was quote, sort of the best thing i ever did. well, is he serious? i'm just kidding. he's been endorsing candidates all over the place. all of the republican primaries. it's time to ask, does anybody really care who gets dick cheney's betty crocker seal of approval. and if you're wondering why the s.e.c. employees didn't have their eyes on the ball while wall street crippled the economy. wait until you see what they did with those eyes? here's a hint, it's triple x-rated. check out the side show to see

what the s.e.c. boys were busy doing. and i'll finish with thoughts on the tricky issue of immigration reform. let's start with the fight over wall street reform. democrat chris van holland ever maryland is chairman of the congressional campaign committee. it's his job to get democrats elected this fall. this is a winner for you, isn't it, wall street? they're the bad guys. >> it's a winner because it's a winner for the american people. woo need to hold wall street accountable. never again should the taxpayers be left on the hook for the big mistakes of people on wall street. they made the bad decisions we shouldn't ask taxpayers to bail them out. next time we need to make sure they take responsibility and they're held accountable and we need to prevent that from happening in the first place. >> are you going to get the bill rammed through? or are you going to get some republicans to slow this down. it likes like people like richard shelby are saying, give us a couple of weeks to work it out. do they want to cooperate with a strong bill with teeth in it? or do they want to water it down and then go on board? >> mitch mcconnell, senator mcconnell, went up to wall

street about two weeks ago, huddled in the back rooms with the big wall street bankers. came back and aposed the bill. so it was pretty clear they wanted to put the brakes on this legislation. but harry reid -- >> you think there's a cassality between that meeting and the position that mitch mcconnell had? >> i think he wanted to kill the bill to begin with. >> you and some of the viewers may think this is obvious, but i would like to hear it spelled out. both parties take money from wall street. most democrats and politicians do have friends on wall street. they're very educated guys up there, like them or not, they're very smart people and some of them are pretty social. they've got a lot of money and they're very political. so you get a lot of money from wall street as cham of the party, the other guys get money too. why are the democrats the ones going against wall street and the republicans seeming to play defense when you're both in the till. explain that to me? >> the fact of the matter is that both parties get contributions from different groups around the country.

>> but wall street, you go where the money is. sutton said go where the money is. >> but the fact of the matter is, chris, this is obviously in the public interest and nobody wants taxpayers left on the hook. it's difficult to explain why the republicans have dug in so hard on this issue. other than to say they're happy with business as usual on wall street. that's the only explanation. >> could this be just stupidity on their part? couldn't this be a dumb move? how about this idea, they've been so smart, to just say no to this president. it's helped them. look where they are in the polls. they're almost competitive. in fact they're very competitive with you guys now. by simply saying no, no, no. whatever else they're saying this week and it's worked for them. you think they got into a rut of doing that? >> i think there's no doubt about it. it was the same mantra day in, day out. we know it was a calculated strategy to oppose obama at every turn. and they said, hey this is going to work for wall street. the house republicans to a person voted no on wall street accountability when we voted in december. >> will they in a week or two

when you get back to them for the final vote? >> i think in the senate they will get some republicans on board. what happens when it goes back to the house is anybody's guess. again, i think a lot of us were very surprised to see every republican house member say no to wall street accountability. >> why is that? you know the business, why would they say no to something -- everybody wants to be teddy roosevelt. everybody wants to be the trust-busting reformer that goes to wall street and kicks butt. and cleans up the place. it's always been good politics. why wouldn't the republican want to do that? >> look, if, to listen to them, you're going to have to, you're going to have to do that. the fact of the matter is what it demonstrates very clearly is how cozy they've gotten with the big banks and special interests. and i don't see any other explanation. because the president has been very clear, we just need some rules of the road. >> let's talk teeth. everybody likes the sound of it. would this bill that you've written, that's going to come out of the house and the senate, will it prevent what happened in 2008? >> yes. >> that almost brought down the american economy?

>> yes. >> will it prevent the into he had for giant bailouts again? >> yes. >> how? >> because just like we have the fdic that can go into banks when they fail, restructure essentially clean out the stockholders and restructure it. we're going to create a mechanism that allows us to do it with the biggest banks. that wasn't there in the past. in addition, there are going to be lots offer early warning mechanisms in place. the whole question of derivatives -- >> would you vote to ban derivatives? >> i wouldn't ban derivatives, but it needs to be transparent. you don't have an aig situation. no one knew that aig was exposed with the huge credit default swaps. that needs to be brought to light so people know when these banks are building up the huge risk and leaving the taxpayer at the end of the day on the hook. >> chris van holland, let's bring in republican congressman scott garrett of new jersey, a member of the financial services committee. congressman, your thoughts now. it looks to me like your party,

the party that was championed by within of my heroes, one of yours, too, teddy roosevelt. went up there, busted the trust, cleaned it up. the polls in new york didn't believe what hit them when he was president. why aren't republicans being more teddy roosevelt and less william howard taft? what happened to you guys? >> the republicans are the ones that are --. goldman sachs, who basically endorsed this plan, who has been bailed out by this administration, will be swamping the street this week in washington with their ceos and other executives saying they support the legislation. why is that? because president obama this legislation that chris dodd has and their administration is continuing the bailouts, continuing to say to the big banks on wall street, the very same ones that basically have provided the campaign cash to them in the past -- banks, don't worry, the american taxpayers will be there for you in the future if you need it that's what this legislation perpetuates. republicans are saying no to that. republicans say we have to go back and do a system where we do not bailout the systems any more and we have a system where jobs -- >> who started the bailouts?

>> in this legislation -- >> you use the word bailout, like it's your common word for every third word now, bailout, bailout, it's very useful politically. who started the bailouts? wasn't it president bush and the republican administration that began -- now you say the trouble with the democrats that they're per pit waiting bushism. the worst thing you can say about a democrat today is he or she is doing what your party did to start this ball rolling. >> right, exactly. and we talked about this in the past, chris. i was opposed to the bailouts in the past. and i believe what we need to do now, what the american public says is to say if haven't passed the legislation, we should do something that reforms the system. make sure that we never find ourselves in this situation as we have right now. and how do you do that? you craft legislation in a bipartisan manner, much of the way that barney frank did i have give him credit where credit is due in our house, we had over 100 committee hearings last year on this. breaking it down, piece by

piece, bipartisan matter. may not like the final product, but we spent the time and energy to get it done as best we could in the senate. as you know, they're just pushing this thing along with some of the bad failed policies of the past. and i will agree with you there. those policies of the bush administration were bad and failed policies. and we should not perpetuate them into the future. >> let me ask you a big question to you both. chris van holland. if you have these big companies like goldman sachs, these leviathons, like the old railroad system, they're too big it fail. can you either honestly say you would let one of them go down? no matter what the $50 billion trust fund that's gleaned from the industry and all. but in the end the cost of bailing out one of these characters, is $200 billion, wouldn't you have to do it? wouldn't you have to do it if you had to, if they fail? >> the whole idea is to prevent that from happening. >> well if it happens. >> we know what happens in the end. you know you cannot allow a meltdown on wall street to bring the whole economy down. >> let me ask that fill solvic

question to mr. gaffy. would you let one of these big guys like lehman go down and not bail them out like president bush did, your president? >> absolutely. >> you would let them go down? >> before president obama even came out with a plan, we said we should have an expedited bankruptcy. chris, what about section 204 in the bill that secures the creditors going forward. what about section 210 in the bill that says the back-door program. >> i'm learning this like everybody is. control the bankruptcy is you let the same bum who is brought the bank down to stay there. bankruptcy doesn't mean that the guys have to leave. >> sure they do. if they go bankrupt, they're not there any more. but under chris -- >> they aren't? >> let me just say one thing. goldman sachs and these guys have spent millions of dollars hiring lobbyists to oppose this legislation. >> and where does most of the money go to? most of the money went to your party, chris. twice as much money has gone to your party. >> scott, we're talking about money they paid to the

lobbyists, it went to the lobbyists they're paying to try to kill the legislation. >> i'm talking about the mondaythy that goes into your pocket, head of the democratic national committee. >> i've got the records right here, chris. >> that's absolutely not true. >> you check -- >> read the numbers off. >> democrats received $2.9, $ .9 million from big banks, twice the amount of money than we received during the 2008 campaign. >> what are you reading from? >> off the s.e.c. reports. >> he's reading from a couple cycles ago. right now the banks, the reason mcconnell went up there and the reason john boehner met with them up there is to say, hey, you know what, you should be supporting us, because we're trying to kill this thing. that is exactly why they huddled. that's why they went behind closed doors. that was the message they sent. and the fact of the matter -- >> you know what it sounds like, not to be too gross about it wall street's got two tits, a right and a left one and you

guys are both depending on that system. >> this legislation is designed to make sure that the goldman sachs of the world and the lehman brothers of the world -- >> how about a law that nobody can stake any more money from wall street. would that be a good deal? nobody can take any more money from wall street. congressman, would you back up that deal? congress can't take money from industry it is regulates. >> we have that law in the state of new jersey. >> it doesn't affect you. you stake money from big financial institutions, i checked your list today. >> yeah, both sides. >> you're not mr. clean here, either? are you kwleen about taking money from wall street, sir? i'm not knocking it, but are you clean? >> i'm taking a position that i'm antithetical to the position that wall street wants. wall street wants to have the taxpayer bank book right there in the future. we're saying no more to that, chris. chris, i don't know why you want to put the taxpayer on the hook like that. i really don't. >> derivatives -- >> i have to clear one thought. will either of you say, i'll never take money from wall street again?

>> excuse me? i accept the silence. you will take money from wall street, won't you? >> seriously, chris, you can check my records. maybe i've gotten some money from wall street in the past. but the fact of the matter is, it's minuscule. >> as chairman of the committee? >> come on, as the dccc? >> yes. >> here's the question, stick to the merits of what the proposal does. >> i think it's a good effort. i prefer teddy roosevelt to william howard taft. but i think it's still a problem. thank you congressman van holla holland. coming up, will president obama be forced to take an immigration reform, take it on because of a new law in arizona? this is interesting. we might have a situation where the law is so bad in arizona, that both sides have to do something. but first we have them both on "hardball" this week, senator arlen specter and congressman joe sestak and today vice president joe biden endorsed one of them.

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the efficient life is the good life. this bill, the support law enforcement and safe neighborhoods act, strengthens the laws of our state. it protects all of us, every arizona citizen, and everyone here in our state lawfully. and it does so while insuring that the constitutional rights

of all in arizona remain solid, stable and steadfast. i will now sign senate bill 1070. >> wow. welcome back to "hardball." that was arizona governor, jan brewer, late this afternoon, signing into law a new measure in arizona that makes it a state crime to be in the u.s. ilt legally and allows local police to question people about their immigration status. after suspicion that they're here illegally. critics say the new law will lead to racial profiling. with us is congressman paul halva from arizona. thank you for joining us on this very heated issue. what should be the means by which we deal with illegal immigration properly? what is the proper american way, as you see it, of maintaining border control or immigration control properly? >> well the proper route is the

one that's before us. and that is to deal with the comprehensive approach to immigration law. and immigration reform. to deal with the fact that the preeminence of this law is federal. that it is a natural law. and that's how to approach it. congress has either run away from this or exploited this issue. i think this law that the governor just signed, if it doesn't provide an impetus and an urgency to congress to do something, i think we're missing the whole point. this law opens up a harbinger of very, very bad things that could happen to constitutionally, to the american people regardless. >> well maybe you never know with these things of unintended consequence. i want to talk about that. but here's the president today, let's listen, on this issue. >> indeed, our failure to act responsibly at the federal level will only open the door to irresponsibility by others. and that includes for example the recent efforts in arizona,

which threaten to undermine basic notions ever fairness that we cherish as americans. as well as the trust between police and their communities that is so crucial to keeping us safe. in fact, i've instructed members of my administration to closely monitor the situation and examine the civil rights and other implications thfr legislation. but if we continue to fail to act at a federal level, we will continue to see misguided efforts opening up around the country. >> well i guess i have to ask you about the president said that our failure to act could lead to irresponsible acts. i'm hoping as an american like you, that maybe the irresponsible you could argue actions of arizona as will lead to the right actions. let me read to you what senator schumer and lindsay graham have in mind. this apparently is what somebody is like the president is thinking about. includes the following. immigration action this summer. to do what, require biometric social security cards to insure that illegal workers cannot get jobs. fulfilling and strengthening our

commitments on border security and interior enforcement. creating a process of implementing a tough, but fair path to legalization for those already here. are there any elements there you don't like? >> well, i think the issue is that we have to deal with the reality that there are people in this country and that are law-abiding and that for some reason, need to have a path to legalization. and that should be open to them. we have to talk about family unification. which is critical. we have to talk about the dream act. agricultural jobs. it's a myriad of things that need to be reformed in this law. we've been talking only about enforcement and security now for eight years. the consequence of that funding, billions upon billions. the consequence of those legislative actions has not done anything to deal with the crisis and the broken system of immigration in this country. so it's time we made it comprehensive. it's time it became holistic.

and what arizona has done is to narrow the focus once more. and quite potentially open up a pandora's box of unconstitutional civil rights violation dhas are going to be challenged judicially and legally, anyway. >> i heard you and you followed the pattern here, of people who are concerned about the welfare of people in the country illegally. and i assume you are. offer up suggestions about how to improve their welfare by family unification. and legalization. but on your side of the argument, you don't hear people talking about ways to actually have fair american-style enforcement. do you think one of the ways to create an enforcement system would be you can't work here illegally. you can't come to america to get a job if you're coming here illegally in the future by having a social security card system that can be checked. do you support that kind of enforcement vehicle? >> the enforcement vehicle, yes. because if we are, if we have a path to legalization, if we deal with the undocumented that are

here that are law-abiding and working. and that employers, and employees know they have rights and that there's verification it their ability to work in this country, absolutely. the problem is that we've only talked about one end of the spectrum and not dealt with the comprehensive side. >> do you think that if you jammed this issue at the hardliners, the people like the governor and said, look, let's be honest, the people a here are going to stay here. nobody's going to go around this country, rounding up what, 10 million, 12 million people in this country and send them away. they have kids here, roots here. overwhelmingly, they're law-abiding. nobody is really ever going to do that. that's just rhetoric. let's talk about the future and having a system of liberal, but enforceable immigration policy. would they go along with that? or are they just too angry to think? what do you think? >> i think we've reached an interesting crucible here, chris. in that right now the issue of

immigration is either elected officials, members of congress, run away from the issue or hide from it or they exploit it as governor brewer and the republican legislature of arizona have done. you demonized, profiled people. it's interesting. you can be fifth-generation american that happens to be of mexican descent in the state of arizona and you fall under the same discriminatory profiling requirements that's in this law. unbelievable. unbelievable. >> i understand that. by the way, i agree with the president, i'm not justifying what arizona did. i wouldn't vote out there. i wouldn't support it but i'll tell you, it is what happens when you don't have reasonable people doing reasonable things. you get unreasonable people grabbing control of the situation. and i think we all probably agree on that. congressman grijava, thank you so much for joining us. up next, massachusetts senator scott brown wants a basketball duel with president obama. who wouldn't? the side show is next.

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back to "hardball" now for the "side show." he's scott brown and he drives a truck. the slogan that defined an improbable republican bid in the bluest of blue states. three months later, massachusetts senator scout bron sat down with nbc's jamie gangel and talked about his relationship with that other political star, president obama. >> he made fun of your truck. >> he can make fun of my votes and policy, but when he makes fun of my truck, that's where i draw the line. i asked him if he want immediate to bring the truck by the white house and take a spin. and i also said, i know you play a lot of basketball. my daughter and i would love to play. >> so far, no invitation. >> i made a couple of inquiries. i think i need to step back and not make it competitive. >> maybe when he needs a vote. >> maybe when he needs somebody

who can shoot. >> when he makes fun of my truck that's where i draw the line? i think this romancing the truck number has gotten well past its fresh date. now over to in the midwest, a '50s throw back. the republican party in medina county, ohio, is getting knack for what it published in its newsletter about democratic congresswoman betty sutton. let's take her out of the white house and put her back in the kitchen. the newsletter was quote an attention-getter that wasn't intended to be sexist. well congresswoman sutton put out a statement saying the mailer devalues the breadth of talent of women and i think the republican chairman out there will be hearing from a lot of people about this. finally, sarah palin on the stand, the ex-governor testified today about a 22-year-old accused of hacking into her, the governor's personal email account during the presidential campaign. palin told the jury that the breach caused a huge disruption

if her family and friends' lives after personal details and contact information was posted online. palin also had some tough words outside the courtroom. >> anybody who thinks that this isn't disruptive or hurtful to have their mailbox broken into or an office broke noon and documents stolen and disclosed for rest of the world should put theirselves in a person's shoes who has gone through this and believe me, it's quite disruptive. it's so extremely unnecessary and resource-consuming, such a sad state of affairs that we're in that we even have to be here trying to teach somebody that it's wrong to do such a thing. >> sounds right except for the odd language about the hacking being extremely unnecessary and resource-consuming. what's that mean? time now for the big number tonight. what a number it is. over at the securities and exchange commission turns out the watchdogs of wall street were watching something else entirely as the economy

unravelled. the s.e.c.'s inspector-general is conducting a probe into the agency's employee who is in the past five years were caught looking at porgny pornography work computers. up next, the one endorsement you don't want to get. the latest from dick cheney. that's how you pronounce it, by the way.

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i'm julia boorstein with your cnbc market wrap. stocks rallied to give the dow the longest weekly win streak since 2004. the dow jones industrial average gaining about 70 points, the s&p 500 adding 8.5 points and the nasdaq pushing 11 points higher.

the dow ending 1.5% higher on the week. today's rally driven in part by a surge in new home sales, march's 27% jump is the largest since 1963. home builder shares rallying on the news. looking at a 34% gain on the week. building supplies tagging along as well. u.s. concrete soaring 25% on the day. orders for durable goods like appliances and autos also moving higher last month. a 2.8% jump is the largest in more than two years. and oil and gold prices pushing higher on expectations of increased demand as the recovery takes hold. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide, now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." it's been more than 15 months

since dick cheney had full-time job but but he's been sis busy. >> by the way, i also want to thank you and on the list of things i feel i should thank you for. almost kicking patrick leahy's [ bleep ], thank you very much. one of my favorite stories. muttering -- >> you'd be surprised how many people liked that. that's sort of the best thing i ever did. >> that's right. cheney says that might have been the best thing he ever did. you know, telling a united states senator right on the vice president's desk, to perform a sexual act on himself. he's still out there issuing statements in the arena and even endorsing candidates for 20106789 the latest is marco rubio. who else will get the cheney's stamp of approval? who wants it. mother jones columnist and john heilman covers politics for "new york" magazine and the co-author of the bestseller, "game

change." the latest "associated press" poll on this former vice president is favorability rating is 38, pretty high for him. his unfavor ability is about average for him, 56%. here is how you andor co-author described cheney's endorsement of mccain in "game change." on november 1, mccain received the most unwanted endorsement in the universities's universe, dick cheney. they laughed because they said it wasn't cheney saluting the senator, it was him flipping the bird. >> dick cheney is a guy who has a lot of political self-awareness. he was aware in the fall of 2008 that his endorsement was more unhelpful to mccain than helpful. and he bestowed his endorsement in full knowledge that it would actually hurt mccain rather than help him. there was a long history of

animosity between cheney and mccain. and so in a way, he was really trying to stick the boot into mccain more than he was trying to give him his seal of approval. >> you're actually saying that dick cheney is a troll, aren't you? i mean only a troll would do that. endorse somebody to hurt them. >> well, i'm, what i'm saying is i think he had an acute sense of his own political potency, both negative and positive on the national political landscape. >> it's extraordinary, to know you're a troll, to know you're an unpleasant person, not to be associated with and you come out from under the bridge and bite the leg of mccain as he walks by. >> i don't think you're being fair to trolls. the interesting thing we're looking at with dick cheney, since he's left the white house eerks sort of been the dark angle of the national security conservative crowd. every couple of weeks he comes out, says by the way obama is trying to destroy the security of the country.

about now, maybe thankfully for democrats, he's moving into the political realm. thinking that his seal of approval is -- >> we serve it up today. look at marco rubio's website, it has dick cheney smack in the middle. here's cheney's statement on rubio. here he is knocking troll-like, charlie crist, the other guy. he doesn't say anything positive about rubio. charlie crist has shown time and again he cannot be trusted in washington to take on the obama agenda. because on issue after issue, he actually supports the agenda. i like this phrase, cannot be trusted to even remain a republican. i strongly urge him to stay in the republican primary or drop out of the race. here's charlie crist responding to the news, let's listen. >> are you upset that you didn't get dick cheney's endorsement? >> no. do i look upset? >> do you think it helps in your campaign not, that rubio has that endorsement? >> you know, just another washington politician telling florida what to do.

i don't think floridians appreciate it. it doesn't matter. >> jon holman, he's not even worth stopping for, governor crist just keeps walking. i do find that cheney has this new role in life. i imagine when he's not endorsing candidates. having salons with all of these neocons around him and he's got a big sifter of cognac. and he's talking, as they're talking about how the government is being given away by these people. >> don't forget the cigars. >> can't you imagine that scene, like something out of "remains of the day." >> it's a little troubling to imagine a troll drinking cognac. >> mixed metaphor. >> charlie crist has put his finger on the problem for cheney. which is that although he's beloved in certain circles in the republican party, he's not exactly a favorite of the populist right.

not somebody that the tea party looks to. you think about what happened in texas. cheney gave his endorsement to kay bail will hutchison, it did no good for her there. in a year where the anti-establishment fever is running across the political landscape, it's not clear if it helps even among republicans to have cheney's endorsement. >> it's like going hunting and having him shoot you. here's cheney at a rally for kay bailey hutchison, another one of the lucky few to have won his endorsement. >> i wasn't sure, however, if after i saw liz cheney on tv on sunday, if this was maybe the announcement of -- cheney 2012? >> no chance. >> she lost by 20 points. just a thought.

it wasn't his fault. i'm not going to blame him for that that's all right. >> i guess rubio can now go after tiger woods' endorsement. you know, john just mentioned, you know, that he doesn't, dick cheney or any washington figure plays well with the populist tea party side of things. but also he certainly won't play well with independent or swing voters. >> is he going to make the rounds and do mccain out there in arizona? >> well we've already -- >> toomey, carly fe y fiorino - >> the republican men and women will say please, no thank you. maybe he'll go out and endorse john mccain to give him one more punch. >> what can you report on the front, further endorsements by dick cheney. >> i think david is right. that's a list you don't want to necessarily be on. i think he's 100% about carly fiorina, the last thing you want is dick cheney next to your name

in newspaper endorsements. >> i remember a great winston churchill line about somebody who wouldn't leave public life. he said i think we need fewer peerages and more disappearages. up next, the hottest political race in the country. first, during this commercial, who has a better chance of controlling the senate after november in one minute? this is "hardball." ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] we make them beautiful. ♪ we make them tougher. ♪ we make them legendary. we make them better... ♪ to make your life better. ♪ and we've never made one...

quite like this. the 100% electric nissan leaf. ♪ so, at national, i go right past the counter... and you get to choose any car in the aisle. choose any car? you cannot be serious! okay. seriously, you choose. go national. go like a pro. what are the republicans' chances of taking u.s. senate in november? nate silver at 538.com projects that the republicans are likely to gain just four seats. far short of the ten they need to take over. he says that the gop has just a 6% chance of taking control. the democrats, meanwhile, have a 7% chance of actually adding to their majority. we'll be right back. what did we make better ?

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back to "hardball." next month kicks off a hot political season with some super senate primaries coming up. now we're going it take a look at the top five primaries picked by the nbc news political unit. alex burns versus the politico right now. and steve kenrake writes tore salon. thank you. first of all, steve, pick up on this the democratic race in ar ash, tonight senator blanche lincoln and her challenger, bill halter square off in the a debate. how does the race look to you, steve? >> if you look at the polls, lincoln is ahead but not by, 10, 15 points. certainly within striking distance for halter. it's an interesting race to me when you look at this historically if you look at it and you look at a challenger in

a primary like halter is, who is coming ideologically, he's coming from the left of lincoln. you could say that the ideological challenger is the less-strong candidate for the election. but if you look at this situation, i think if you look at the polls from the fall, blanche lincoln is basically screwed. we went back and looked at every incumbent senator in the last 30 years who has consistently trailed by more than five points at this point in an election year, we could only find two in last 30 years who actually came back and won an election. one was jesse helms. >> those two people are the kind of people you don't like telling pollsters you're for. i want alex to take a look at utah. who was would predict this, utah senator bob bennett has been under attack for being a washington insider. can he fight off attacks from his right and hold on to his

seat? we don't even know who is running against him and this guy has a hard time, right, alex? alex? >> maybe the most, best-known candidate running in the race is an attorney naked mike lee, a former prosecutor, his father was a solicitor-general. but doesn't have much of a political profile on his own. he's hoping to take advantage of what is really a petty unusual nominating process out there. there's a convention that's really activist dominated and if one candidate can get 60% of those activists behind them, they can get the nomination. now mitt romney is going out to that event to win votes for him. he's one of the most popular politicians in the state. it's a test of romney as well as for the senator. >> that is fascinating. steve, take a look at kentucky, this gop race is no tea party. it's getting nasty between trey grayson, the establishment candidate, and rand paul, ron paul's son. how does that look? >> rand paul, no matter what the establishment throws at him, no matser what the neocons, the rudy giuliani, ron paul and

his party, i think the interesting thing to watch is if rand paul wins this, it's going to be in the fall. i just have a humpnch he's goin to turn around and be president. his father is going to be 77 years old. the timing has never been better. ron paul is winning all of the straw polls. they need a candidate out there instead of a congressman. >> it's a really barry gold water message, too. it's a conservative, get the united states out of your face and world affairs. it's classic old-time conservatism. it looks like race is over on the republican side. where does it go now? >> there's only two choices right now. will charlie crist drop out or

run as a republican in 2012. if he goes independent, you've got polls that are showing him barely ahead. there's not too much history on this stuff. when you look at it, the big name figures leave a party in the senate face, and with the exception of joe lieberman, you're looking at tom dodd and marshal coleman in virginia, 1994. they start strong and just recede as the campaign goes on and end up dreaming votes from one party. >> finally, let's take a look at pennsylvania. hot primary up there. you rarely see a primary this hot for the senate. arlen specter, the senator turned democrat right now, holding on a bit of a lead over joe sestak. if he's ahead, i have to ask steve if he's ahead, why is he going negative with the tough charge against joe sestak's naval record?

>> he's the primary challenge that never materialized. we looked at this and said you're going to have the congressman running from the left and he's not developed a great message. specter has headed him off but there was a poll that came out a week ago, and it showed a five-point lead for specter. maybe they got spoked by that. >> if i could just jump in here? >> sure. go ahead. >> says stack has been saving his money for a long time here. says stack had over $5 million. the reason you have specter coming out very, very hard, and joe biden is out on the trail for him, this congressman is fairly obscure. specter needs to make sure that that doesn't happen. >> i've been told that the standard specter m.o. what he does is wait for the other candidate challenging him to go

up and start running tv ad's and he goes on to neutralize all of that spending. specter has 99% name i.d. and the other guy is way down on name i.d. can he blunt this chance? >> if anybody can do it, it's arlen specter. and the question is, is he, on some fundamental level, it seems so far he's not. >> i think democrats have been voting for specter for years and the establishment is behind him. your thoughts on this, steve? the establishment of the democratic party, the city organization, governor is behind them. can the suburbs come out against them or the rural areas and pick a guy that's been a democrat perhaps more authentically in the past? >> i think of what you said and alex just said. i agree. i'm thinking back to lynn and arlen specter in 19826789 this

is a guy that you don't vote against. i'll tell you, if there's one exception this year, i don't think it's going to be harry reid or blanche lincoln. i think it could be arlen specter in pennsylvania. >> that's incredible to watch. the youngsters that you are, you are incredible to watch. thank you alex and steve. you know your stuff. when we return, i'll tell you what i think about a big problem facing america today, and that is illegal immigration and there is a right way to deal with it. many people agree. you're watching hardball only on msnbc.

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